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Field · Chemistry first

Quantum advantage, with the goalposts set in advance.

A claim that a quantum computer beats the best classical methods is only as strong as the comparison behind it. Each record in this field fixes one problem, one budget and the rule for every outcome before any result counts. Classical methods compete for the same target under the same ceilings, and they can win.

Open the first recordHow the method works

What a record fixes

Five terms, set before any result counts

Each record states what better means for its problem. For the first, it means reaching a verified energy target at least twice as fast, under the same per-run ceilings.

Problem

One public input file, pinned, so every team computes the same thing.

Pass line

The threshold every run has to meet, and how a result is verified.

Comparison

Quantum is judged on its slowest run against the fastest classical run that reaches the same line. Every quantum dossier also reruns its own workflow with each quantum output replaced by a classical source declared in advance, and its successful runs compete as classical entries.

Budget and clock

A ceiling on compute charges, valued at published prices, and on elapsed time for every run; deadlines for evidence; and one judgment date.

Outcome rule

Every possible outcome is mapped to a tier in advance. A tier moves only on results under the test.

Records

One record so far

Records are listed in the order they were opened. The next follows the same format; none is drafted yet.

Record 01 · ChemistryDraft protocol, not yet registered

Can quantum assistance halve the time to a verified iron-sulfur result?

One molecule, one fixed Hamiltonian and one test, judged once on 31 December 2027. Classical and quantum teams have both posted energies for this problem. The classical comparison must cover GPU-accelerated DMRG and selected configuration interaction.

System
[Fe₄S₄(SCH₃)₄]²⁻CAS(54, 36), one pinned file
Pass line
≤ −327.245436 Eha verified variational upper bound; provisional until registration
The test
Speed score ≥ 2the slowest of ten quantum runs is at least twice as fast as the fastest classical run that reaches the line, with timing uncertainty counted against the claim
The budget
US$100,000 and 168 hoursceiling per run, at public prices; donated access valued the same way
The clock
2027-07-04 → 2027-12-31quantum dossier public by, then judged once

2026-10-31 · Amendment 1, before registration: binding is per team, and every quantum dossier includes an ablation.

Open the recordRead the full record

What this field does not claim.

  • It does not say whether quantum advantage exists, or when it will. It records the rule before the result.
  • No probabilities. The tier for each outcome is written in advance; a tier is not a prediction.
  • Violema chose the thresholds, budgets and deadlines. They are policy choices, not field consensus.
  • Naming a company or lab cites its published work. It is not a claim that anyone there has joined a test.
  • No domain expert has reviewed these records yet. Violema builds them and has a commercial interest in their being read.
Open the Fe₄S₄ recordRequest a briefing