Clinical research
PsychDoc · Depression evidence
Which parts of a psilocybin depression result survive an assumed bias shift?
Inspect a saved analysis, its population limits and the assumptions that change its interpretation.
The saved primary analysis pools 12 trials: Hedges’ g −0.90, with a 95% confidence interval from −1.26 to −0.55.
Interpretation limit
Negative values favour psilocybin. The dataset combines several clinical populations and controls; this is not an MDD-only effect, a durability estimate or a treatment recommendation.
For the five MDD or TRD trials alone, the saved estimate is −0.93; its 95% interval, −1.87 to 0.01, includes no effect.
Interpretation limit
Two of the five trials are open-label waitlist comparisons. The subgroup and primary result reuse trials; they are not independent replications.
The saved primary model’s 95% prediction interval is wider: −1.73 to −0.08.
Interpretation limit
This model-conditional interval for a new comparable trial is not the confidence interval for the pooled mean. It crosses both illustrative benefit thresholds used in this demo.
Replay of a saved analysis
What changes with an assumed bias?
Add the same assumed positive shift to the saved estimate and both confidence bounds. Interval width stays fixed. The shift is imposed, not estimated; this is a replay, not a refit or a probability of truth. The two thresholds are inherited illustrative choices, not patient-specific cutoffs. It does not apply to the materials packet.
Stage B awaits independent scientific review
- Saved result
- Assumed shift
- Hedges’ g; Negative values favour psilocybin
Saved replay: Claim 1, primary analysis. Selecting another claim does not change this replay.
The control adds the same assumed shift to the estimate and both interval endpoints. It does not estimate bias, refit the model, or change the interval width.
Reference lines are saved analytical thresholds, not universal clinical cutoffs. A shifted interval crossing a line is conditional on this chosen assumption. Displayed values are rounded; the packet retains full precision.
Saved analysis provenance
Download the pinned result snapshot
Download the trial records of the primary analysis
Replay of a saved analysis · assumed additive bias · PsychDoc 3001296 · stability.json SHA-256 7289ec7d89f6df0061d2aa7508f58c4d46c37a611a5838162470596ff1e1ace1
Claim 1
Linked evidence
SYPRES depression-psiloctr, version 25.1.2↗sypres-data2025Versioned dataset
Pinned data.csv; SHA-256 237b4a5601bd4de1b1c1b0e335e730677c2b09cd7a3ce2c893df623e9feba793. Trial inputs have not all been checked against reports.
PsychDoc Stage B saved sensitivity analysis↗psychdoc-stage-b2026Saved analysis · review pending
Saved stability.json at PsychDoc commit 3001296325cb95d64fcca6e412eb10b48264144a: primary, mdd-trd and prediction interval; see downloadable provenance.
A living systematic review, meta-analysis and open-data resource of randomized controlled trials of psilocybin treatment for symptoms of depression↗sypres-paper2026Published meta-analysis
Public abstract; article Methods, Results and Supplement were not re-audited for this packet.
SYPRES analysis release 26.0.0↗sypres-code2026Author analysis code
psilodep-meta-analysis.Rmd. Existing PsychDoc rerun receipt was inspected; the original R model was not rerun during this website build.
Claim 2
Linked evidence
SYPRES depression-psiloctr, version 25.1.2↗sypres-data2025Versioned dataset
Pinned data.csv; SHA-256 237b4a5601bd4de1b1c1b0e335e730677c2b09cd7a3ce2c893df623e9feba793. Trial inputs have not all been checked against reports.
PsychDoc Stage B saved sensitivity analysis↗psychdoc-stage-b2026Saved analysis · review pending
Saved stability.json at PsychDoc commit 3001296325cb95d64fcca6e412eb10b48264144a: primary, mdd-trd and prediction interval; see downloadable provenance.
Claim 3
Linked evidence
SYPRES depression-psiloctr, version 25.1.2↗sypres-data2025Versioned dataset
Pinned data.csv; SHA-256 237b4a5601bd4de1b1c1b0e335e730677c2b09cd7a3ce2c893df623e9feba793. Trial inputs have not all been checked against reports.
PsychDoc Stage B saved sensitivity analysis↗psychdoc-stage-b2026Saved analysis · review pending
Saved stability.json at PsychDoc commit 3001296325cb95d64fcca6e412eb10b48264144a: primary, mdd-trd and prediction interval; see downloadable provenance.
Conditions behind the claims
Read across before comparingA missing or different condition is a reason to inspect the source, not to treat two results as equivalent.
| Condition | Claim 1 | Claim 2 | Claim 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Endpoint | Standardized depression-score effect (Hedges’ g) | Hedges’ g; same orientation as primary result | Hedges’ g in a new comparable trial |
| Population | Mixed trial populations; not MDD/TRD alone | MDD or treatment-resistant depression | Not recorded in this packet |
| Window | Primary windows: 14–49 days after final dose | Not recorded in this packet | Not recorded in this packet |
| Model | Saved REML / Hartung–Knapp primary analysis | Not recorded in this packet | Not recorded in this packet |
| Evidence subset | Not recorded in this packet | 5 trials; 2 open-label waitlist comparisons | Not recorded in this packet |
| Interpretation | Not recorded in this packet | Uncertainty includes zero | Not recorded in this packet |
| Interval type | Not recorded in this packet | Not recorded in this packet | 95% prediction interval |
| Dependence | Not recorded in this packet | Not recorded in this packet | Same fitted primary analysis, not new evidence |
| Scope | Not recorded in this packet | Not recorded in this packet | Model assumptions and comparability still apply |
How this packet was prepared
- Pinned SYPRES data releaseDataset identity pinned; source-input audit incompleteSources:
sypres-data - Author code → saved PsychDoc analysisExisting reproduction inspected; no new refit in this demoSources:
sypres-code,psychdoc-stage-b - Primary, subgroup and prediction outputs reuse evidenceDo not count these outputs as independent studiesSources:
sypres-data,psychdoc-stage-b
Version and supported operations
Download preparation notes · Source-reference check receipt
PsychDoc 3001296 · SYPRES 25.1.2 · packet 2026-10-10.1
- Source-linked claims
- Explicit population and endpoint limits
- Saved additive-bias replay
Prepared packet with manual source curation. This view does not run live ingestion or automatic full-text extraction.
